EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026

After four straight years of growth, U.S. oil production may be nearing a plateau. A new federal outlook projects a modest dip in crude output in 2026, even as production remains near record levels. The forecast points to slowing momentum outside a few strong regions and a notable drop in oil prices compared to recent highs. Together, the projections offer a snapshot of an energy sector adjusting to shifting supply dynamics, regional limits, and a cooler price environment heading into the next two years.

EIA staff

U.S. Energy Information Administration

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